Economics and Politics

Source: Lena Groeger

One of the most important fields to emerge in the past three decades is the field of cognitive and behavioural bias. Countless experiments prove that we are all heavily biased decision makers and not the rational homo economicus purported by academic theories. Because economics is not a natural science like physics, conducting experiments to prove theories is not possible. Despite this, economists have tried to use maths (see econometrics) to prove various theories. The problem with constructing mathematical models is the reliance on assumptions and because there are so many moving parts in the economy, even a complex model will be inaccurate.

The lack of clear evidence results in multiple theories that are difficult to disprove. Usually supporters of a particular economic theory will find it magically aligns with their political bias. Obviously this is no surprise because confirmation bias is one of the most common biases we all exhibit.

For economics to really become practical and more scientific, biases must be eradicated when conducting economic analysis. When biases are mitigated, you don't get flawed predictions like "QE will result in hyperinflation" or "the budget sequester will cause the economy to go into recession."

For economics to be scientific and void of bias, it must be apolitical. I can only hope that one day economics will be apolitical. What will this day look like? It will occur when the vast majority of the economists agree on theories and predictions.

This is exactly why I support Money Realism because it tries to keep the politics out of economics. Cullen explains this in his summary of MR eliminating politics from economics:

"We probably can’t completely eliminate politics from economics, but MR is based on attempting to understand the monetary system and the economy at its operational level as opposed to focusing on providing policy solutions like so many other economic schools.   So we focus on things that are verifiable. For instance, how certain institutions are structured in specific monetary systems, how modern banking works, etc.  It’s all based on the view that a superior understanding of the money system comes from building an understanding of how the monetary “machine” works from the ground up.

We try, as best we can, not to provide prescriptive ideas and instead try to provide a set of understandings so that users of MR’s understandings can then decide on their own how best to implement policy.  We are not Keynesians, Monetarists, Austrians or any specific school at all.  MR is simply a set of understandings designed to describe the money system. 

Economics tends to focus on how certain policies can solve problems.  I believe economists should adhere to a Da Vinci method.  That is, when Da Vinci studied the human body he did not focus so much on how to fix the body, but how it worked.  Economists focus too much time trying to fix the economy and not enough time building a set of principles that define how it works.  If more economists adhered to a Da Vinci method I think better solutions would necessarily arrive. 

This is the primary strength of MR.  We don’t treat economics like it’s a religion.  Instead, we treat it like an evolving and changing science that requires flexibility and an open-minded approach.   As far as I know, there are few if any approaches to economics that provide this sort of approach."

Examples of biased economists

Some prominent economists that come to mind are Paul Krugman who has a blog titled "Conscience of a liberal". Just in case you did not know which political ideology he subscribes to. It is also clear that the Nobel Prize winner in economics, still does not understand how the banking system works when he claims that banks are not lending out reserves!:

"Banks are holding almost $2.7 trillion in excess reserves — funds they could lend out, but choose instead to leave idle."

Another biased economist that comes to mind is Stephen Koukoulas who frequently lambasts conservative politicians. He was an advisor to the former Prime Minister and leader of the Australian Labor party, Julia Gillard. Unfortunately his otherwise good economic analysis is tainted by his political bias.

On the other side of the political divide there are people like Peter Schiff and Robert Murphy from the Austrian school and a whole host of neoclassical economists like Arthur Laffer who will preach the virtues of a free market and that more government action will lead to adverse outcomes.

I would suggest you ignore the above economists who closely align themselves with one side of politics. Look out for those who are objective and apolitical, which is important in almost any field that relies on discovering knowledge.

But what about my political ideology? If I had to describe my own political bias then it would be Libertarian. Unfortunately, identifying with a particular ideology leads to many biases that result in a distorted view of reality. Thus I will now address eradicating political bias from your identity.

The most important reason to get rid of politics from your identity

The simple answer is politics makes you stupid. How you ask? When we adopt a political ideology as part of our identity, we perceive value from having correct beliefs. But what happens when these beliefs are wrong? You start to question your own self-worth and become reluctant to change these beliefs/identity, which makes "changing your identity a psychologically brutal process." 

"The most important psychological imperative most of us have in a given day is protecting our idea of who we are and our relationships with the people we trust and love." These quotes are from the article by Ezra Klein - How politics makes us stupid, which is highly recommended reading. This is the reason I am abandoning my Libertarian beliefs or any political belief/ideology for that matter. I don't want to be stupid and I guess you don't want to be either!