India is a prime example of a broken country and squandered
potential. Years of mismanagement and interference has mutilated an economy which
is now disintegrating before our eyes.
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| The fires of inflation destroy purchasing power |
The volatility over the last year in Indian financial
markets resulted from years of government monetary intervention and bureaucracy
choking productive activity. In this post I want to explore the causes of dramatic
currency depreciation and possible remedies.
Burning Down the House
Firstly, we have to look at how this happened. India was
part of the infamous BRIC nations. Supposedly, India was a new engine of global
economic growth that would unleash millions of middle-class consumers demanding
more goods and services from the rest of the world. China was the poster child
and India was its little brother waiting for its chance to live up to the high
expectations set by its sibling. But as any free market or Austrian economist
will tell you, economic growth can only occur when there is less government involvement
in the economy.
Fundamentally, India has not escaped its historical communist
influences. The government is strangling the private sector with a byzantine regulatory
system, numerous taxes and a corrupt bureaucracy. The political actions of
recent weeks epitomise the intrusive and destructive handling of the economy. By
placing restrictions on gold imports and then banning currency derivatives resulted
in greater capital flight and a greater loss of confidence. This then leads to
a vicious cycle of more regulations and more capital flight until the government
and society capitulate to reality.
A depreciating currency is always caused by loose monetary
policy. Interest rates are kept too low, resulting in excess credit creation and
eventually rising prices. Unless interest rates are raised to quash rising
prices, the currency loses its integrity as a store of value. People quickly
convert the depreciating currency into commodities (e.g. precious metals), hard
assets and alternative currencies to avoid the loss of purchasing power. At
some point, the government is forced to act correctly as social tension rises
amidst a financial and economic crisis. If the government denies its prior
economic mistakes and maintains loose monetary policy, hyperinflation and a
complete loss of confidence is the inevitable conclusion followed by transition
to a new currency. We have seen this throughout history and thus none of this
is a revelation; it is the certain truth.
Eye-Watering Results
To give you an idea of the extent to which the Rupee has
lost purchasing power, we will look at a staple of the Indian diet, onions. As
seen in the chart below, onion output and productivity has dramatically
increased and is a testament to India’s agricultural industry harnessing better
farming techniques and utilising capital.
In a free market economy, such a large increase in onion
production would result in lower prices but guess what prices have done:
This is exactly why Indians have an insatiable appetite for
gold. Gold has always been a part of Indian culture and has become more sought
after due to the realisation that gold is a better store of value than the
Rupee.
Behind the Curve
When exactly did the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) commit the
crime of inflating the money supply? At the same time most central banks did,
in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008/2009. Below is a graph
showing the changes in the consumer price index which measures the average
prices (dashed red line) in the economy compared to the interest rate set by
the RBI (solid black line).
Before 2009, the CPI was slightly below the interest rate
which means the cost of borrowing was very low. After 2009, the RBI slashed
interest rates but made the fatal mistake of raising rates too slowly. During
2010, the CPI was increasing at 8-10% p.a. while interest rates were below 6%
and slowly rising. Real interest rates were negative, which meant credit had no
cost and resulted in a booming property and stock market. This attracted
foreign capital as interest rates around the developed world were at or close
to zero. There was a huge yield differential that could be exploited via
borrowing in the US at a low rate and then investing in India at a higher rate.
This caused upward pressure on the Indian Rupee as portfolio flows flooded
Indian capital markets (bonds and stocks). Portfolio flows (equities, bonds etc.)
were favoured over foreign direct investment (building factories, buying entire
businesses etc.) because of India’s hostile business environment which made it easy
and less risky to buy equity and debt in companies.
India is just the worst case out of all emerging markets. A
few years ago, emerging markets joined the currency war. They were complaining
about QE because it was causing all this hot money to flow into their
economies. But instead of allowing their currencies to rise which would have
ended the inflows. They bought USDs and US treasuries and sold their domestic
currency to stop it appreciating. Now that USDs are being repatriated from
emerging markets, their domestic currency has come flooding back.
Similarly in India’s case, what goes up must come down. The
Fed’s rhetoric changed in late May with hints that asset purchases will taper.
This sent a shockwave around the world as US treasury yields rose, narrowing
the yield differential between the US and economies with higher interest rates.
The Australian dollar was one currency that depreciated as the RBA cut interest
rates. Likewise, other Asian and emerging market economies saw their currencies
tumble. As the situation unfolded, the market became aware of the precarious
position India was in and panic took over. But what can India do to stop the
Rupee depreciation?
Do It! Do It Now!!!
Things India can do to turn the tide:
- Sell all foreign currency reserves (US$275bn)
and gold (US$25bn) to buy rupees. Then destroy the purchased Rupees. The effect
is a reduction in the Rupee money supply which will have an immediate impact on
the exchange rate. It also sends a message to the market that the government is
serious about a strong Rupee
- Raise interest rates to squash inflation.
There’s no balance between growth and inflation. The only way to get India
growing again is to liquidate bad investments and rebuild after the recession
has reset the economy. This is what Regan and Thatcher did in the 1980s.
- Fully deregulate the domestic economy. This will
encourage long-term foreign direct investment instead of portfolio capital
which can leave the country quickly
- Reduce government spending to balance the
budget. A good place to start is defence with India being the largest arms buyer in the world. By reducing the deficit, the government borrows less money
from the private sector and therefore the private sector has more capital to
invest in productive investments. A submarine is not a productive investment!
However, Indian elections are around the corner and reform
measures are not popular. This is what happens if no reforms take place:
- Rupee continues to plunge, which results in
lower confidence and capital flight. Could result in a vicious cycle till the government
is forced to act
- Import prices sky-rocket. Oil is already 50% more expensive in recent months
- Long-term stigma and sovereign risk due to the
perception of a dysfunctional economy
The only way India can seize its potential is by
deregulating the entire economy and restoring faith in its fiat currency as a
store of value. Both these actions are difficult given their political implications,
which is why I am doubtful they will be done voluntarily. It will be the market
who makes an offer they can’t refuse,
and will be the driving factor behind change. Unfortunately, this episode has
proven once again that the actions of the few in government torture the many
living under India’s rule.
